casestudy

How to predict the outcome of a live score match

Some people are extremely good at predicting the outcome sporting events. Professional gamblers are able to do this and make a living doing it. This is a must-have skill for team managers who need to plan the season and know which live score to concentrate on and which ones to let go. Sports journalists are also known for their ability to get it right every time. It may sound like guesswork or intuition to some, but there is science to sport. If you understand the factors that are important, you can also predict match results.

League position

When deciding who is most likely to win a match, the first thing you should look at is the relative positions of the teams in league tables. The higher team will win more often if there are many places between them. If the teams are very close, a draw is likely. This can be done by using a rule of thumb, or you can go back through the records to quantify how much advantage each league position has. In the English Premier League, a draw is the most likely result when two teams are within six places. This has been the case for five years. The leagues that are most competitive will have different results and they will be different at different times of the season. The league position is not a reliable predictor at the beginning of the season, when there aren’t enough results. Also, at the end of a season when most teams (especially the more successful ones), are exhausted.

Home and away

Next, consider whether the team is playing away or at home. Some leagues have few away wins. This is due to the power of the crowd. The opposition stadium can prove hostile for teams with long travel distances and few supporters. The crowd can also have an impact on the referee, although it is unlikely to happen. The nature of refereeing can be influenced by the presence of large numbers of cheering supporters. The effect of referees having a 'home bias' has been scientifically proven to be real and not a frustrating phenomenon for the away fans. This home advantage means that teams often have two configurations. One for home and one away. Away teams are more cautious and will play a defensive midfielder instead of one of their strikers. This makes it less likely that they win away. It is easy to calculate the home advantage in leagues by adding up all home wins and comparing it to the away wins. The ratio is usually around 2 to 1.

Who is playing?

The team announcement is a key factor in determining the outcome of a game. The announcement of the team line-ups, which is usually made twenty minutes prior to kick-off, gives an indication of the game's course. You will find two...

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