Positive outlook for world poultry market
The poultry industry worldwide has made tremendous progress over the past decades. And the outlook is still bright. New challenges are facing the industry today. Such as how to supply major urban areas like in Asia. New concepts seem to gain ground in Europe. Brexit is causing uncertainty for the sector however.
By Ad Bal
The worldwide demand for protein from animal origin, will be 35 percent more in the upcoming 20 years. That is the prediction of Rabobank, based on statistics of FAO and USDA. “Compared to other species, poultry is in a favorite position”, says Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior global animal protein specialist of Rabobank. “Particularly at this moment, because of the swine fever epidemic in China. We must realize that China counts for 50 percent of global pork production. Given the fact that currently pigs are culled massively in this country due to African swine fever , there will be a huge demand for any protein that can be supplied into the Chinese market. In that respect, poultry comes first, as it can easily and quickly be produced with a high efficiency.
However, this unusual situation in China will be temporary. The long term projections of Rabobank, show a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.0 percent for poultry meat and 1.6 percent for shell eggs.
“The highest growth rate will be in Asia”, says Mulder. “We predict about 60 percent. The demand is on the rise in those areas where there’s no crop land available. Countries with an enormous population and a high urbanization rate like China. Here, but also in other Asian countries, nowadays we can find so called megacities. Thanks to economic prosperity, incomes are on the rise and as a result spending power is going up as well. This is a major driver for the increased demand for meat. Then, chicken comes first. In global poultry meat trade, we can see an increased east-west trade flow to supply Asian markets. Major suppliers are Brazil and USA. Also Europe is exporting to Asia.
Yet, there are constraints as well for the global poultry sector. Currently, two third of the global soy bean production goes to China. This indicates land scarcity, but also the available volume of water per capita is low in China and other Asian countries. This makes visible that growing sufficient soybean and other crops to produce animal feed is...
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