Bright outlook for poultry industry in Africa
A rising middle class with increased spending power. And a population to double within the next 30 years. The conditions for a flourishing poultry and table egg market seem excellent on the African continent. This can only be achieved however, if a comprehensive set of measures are taken to facilitate the ambitious goal of becoming self-supporting and meeting the increased demand. - By Ad Bal
Up till the recent past, Africa was known as a continent with poor economies, where lack of income and poverty usually dominated. However, today this situation is changing substantially in a positive direction. Based on studies of USDA, FAO, OECD and IMF, Rabobank concluded that economies in Africa are growing steadily. “Particularly in the Sub-Saharan region we see substantial growth”, says Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior global animal protein specialist of Rabobank. “After a slowdown in the past few years, we expect recovery in the years to come with an estimated annual economic growth of by around 4 percent. This is even slightly higher than the world average. Another key driver is a growing population in the entire region. Currently, all Sub-Saharan countries show an annual growth of 2-3 percent. Hence, the entire population of this region will have doubled by around the year 2050.
“As a result, we observe a rising middle class”, Mulder continues. “In the year 2005, a population of around 630 million were above poverty line. In 2020, this figure is expected to even reach 1.1 billion, almost doubled! At the same time, the number below poverty line is decreasing. The rising middle class is a key driver for change in the food value chain. They shift from buying vegetable to animal protein, mainly poultry and eggs and shift from buying at traditional markets to buying in supermarkets, convenience stores, restaurants and increasingly more via home delivery.
Automatically, this will lead to a growing demand for food. Since incomes, and with that spending power are rising steadily, also the demand for meat and eggs will increase. After all, this is the easiest, most effective and fastest way of producing protein from animal origin. The “up to 2027” projection of Rabobank, shows a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.9 percent for poultry meat and 3.7 percent for table eggs. This is the highest rate compared to other animal species including seafood. Nonetheless, seafood is still the biggest competitor to poultry, but the growth rate of aquaculture is lacking.
According to Rabobank, the entire African market size for poultry meat and table eggs is currently estimated to reach 3.6 million tonnes and 1.6 million tonnes respectively, which is massive. As a region, Africa captures 15 percent of the global poultry market growth, whereas for eggs this accounts to 12 percent. The size of the Sub Saharan market has surpassed Northern Africa, both for meat as well as eggs. The fastest growth for meat with over 6 percent CAGR is currently in Eastern Africa. For table eggs,...
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